Cambridge United 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charlton (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambridge United face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 44 as Cambridge United welcome Charlton to Cledara Abbey Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cambridge United's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Cledara Abbey Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cambridge United are significantly better at Cledara Abbey Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Charlton have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charlton — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Charlton have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters against Cambridge United's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Charlton have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 41% versus Charlton 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 44% | Charlton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.827 / defence 0.975 | Charlton attack 1.083 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.166. Data: 87 Cambridge United games / 89 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 35% | Draw 27% | Charlton 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Cambridge United 50% | Charlton 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 35% | Draw 27% | Charlton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Cambridge United 1.20 / Charlton 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.827 / def 0.975 | Charlton attack 1.083 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Charlton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Charlton xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Charlton kick off?
Cambridge United vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Cambridge United 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Cambridge United vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Charlton part of?
Cambridge United vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 35% chance of winning, Charlton a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cambridge United and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Charlton?
Record (5 meetings): Cambridge United 0W | Draws 2 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Cambridge United and Charlton in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
35%
2.82
27%
3.64
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.43
1.23
Charlton xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.23 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambridge United come into this having played 87 games, going 25W 16D 46L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.25 PPG from 87 outings (26W 31D 30L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambridge United on 1.05 PPG, Charlton on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambridge United's home form reads 17W 9D 17L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.09 points per game from 43 outings (10W 17D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Cambridge United are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 68%.
Last 87 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Charlton in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 25W 16D 46L in their last 87 games (1.05 PPG), while Charlton have gone 26W 31D 30L in their last 87 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Charlton away?
Cambridge United's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.40 PPG; Charlton away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambridge United and Charlton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cambridge United's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cambridge United
3
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 0, Charlton have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 42%, Charlton 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cambridge United) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 35% of games; Charlton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 63% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cambridge United's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Charlton tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Charlton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Cambridge United and Charlton drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Charlton attack 1.08 / defence 1.11, drawn from 87/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 35% | Draw 27% | Charlton 37%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 44%, Charlton 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.05 PPG, Charlton 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.