Cambridge United 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees AFC Wimbledon travel to Abbey Stadium to take on Cambridge United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambridge United stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's home record at Abbey Stadium: 2W 4D 2L from 8 League One appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Cambridge United) versus 1.20 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cambridge United trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambridge United 79% and AFC Wimbledon 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 57% | AFC Wimbledon 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.41 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.969 / defence 1.312 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.900 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.362. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Cambridge United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Cambridge United games / 14 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 34% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | AFC Wimbledon 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 62% | AFC Wimbledon 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 34% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Cambridge United 1.41 / AFC Wimbledon 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.969 / def 1.312 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.900 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.61
AFC Wimbledon xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon?
Cambridge United 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 34% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambridge United's attack at 0.97x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
34%
2.98
24%
4.15
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
3.02
1.61
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.61 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Cambridge United have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 3W 7D 4L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambridge United on 1.14 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambridge United have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambridge United are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.43 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambridge United have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; AFC Wimbledon in 64%.
Last 14 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 3W 7D 4L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
AFC Wimbledon's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.29 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cambridge United
0
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 26 March 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Cambridge United.
Who has won more matches between Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon?
Cambridge United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 57%, AFC Wimbledon 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Cambridge United and 71% for AFC Wimbledon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cambridge United's games and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Cambridge United's matches and 71% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Cambridge United and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambridge United defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.41 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.61 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.97 / defence 1.31 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 34% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 42%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 57%, AFC Wimbledon 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambridge United 1.14 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambridge United win broke the near-deadlock. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.