Burton Albion vs Wrexham – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Wrexham's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Wrexham's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.20
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
1.94
1.06
Wrexham xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 15.3 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.06 for Wrexham, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.