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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League One · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sat 16 Aug 2025

12:30

Venue

Pirelli Stadium

Competition

League One

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Burton Albion Win

56%

Burton Albion

1.78

24%

Draw

4.24

20%

Port Vale

4.94

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

2 – 0

10.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.75

Burton Albion xG

Total xG

2.71

0.95

Port Vale xG

56%
24%
20%
Burton AlbionDrawPort Vale

1.78

56%

Home win

4.24

24%

Draw

4.94

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.97

49%

BTTS No

2.03

Clean Sheet

39%

Burton Albion

2.59

17%

Port Vale

5.77

Win to Nil

22%

Burton Albion

4.61

4%

Port Vale

28.50

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.7 6.4 3.0 1.0 0.2
1 11.7 11.2 5.3 1.7 0.4 0.1
2 10.3 9.8 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 6.0 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.2
4 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.753
λ Away (xG) 0.952
Total xG 2.705
League avg home goals 1.359
League avg away goals 1.086
Burton Albion attack strength 1.080
Burton Albion defence strength 1.035
Port Vale attack strength 0.846
Port Vale defence strength 1.194
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 48 / 2