Burton Albion 0-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Burton Albion welcome Port Vale to Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 40). Kick-off is Saturday 23 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Burton Albion's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Port Vale — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Port Vale have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Burton Albion have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Burton Albion have won 2, Port Vale 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2023, ended Burton Albion 3–2 Port Vale — a Burton Albion win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 47% versus Port Vale 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 46% | Port Vale 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.18 xG and Port Vale 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.704 / defence 1.038 | Port Vale attack 0.670 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.191. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.704 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 84 games and Port Vale's last 83.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 30% | Port Vale 26%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.26 | Draw 3.33 | Port Vale 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 30% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 40 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 30% | Port Vale 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Burton Albion 1.18 / Port Vale 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.704 / def 1.038 | Port Vale attack 0.670 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Port Vale xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Port Vale kick off?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Burton Albion vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Port Vale part of?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 44% chance of winning, Port Vale a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Burton Albion and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Burton Albion vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 84 games and Port Vale's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.33
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.01
0.83
Port Vale xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.83 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 25W 20D 38L from 83 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 43L across 83 games — 0.99 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.14 PPG, Port Vale on 0.99. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 15W 11D 15L from their last 41 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 8W 11D 22L across their last 41 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 38L in their last 83 games (1.14 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 21W 19D 43L in their last 83 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Port Vale away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.37 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 44%, Port Vale 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Burton Albion) and 56% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 37% of games; Port Vale in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 49% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Burton Albion's recent games and 56% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 63% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.18 xG and Port Vale 0.83 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.70 / defence 1.04 against Port Vale attack 0.67 / defence 1.27, drawn from 84/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 44% | Draw 30% | Port Vale 26%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 46%, Port Vale 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.14 PPG, Port Vale 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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