Burton Albion vs Plymouth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plymouth (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burton Albion face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 41 as Burton Albion welcome Plymouth to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 April 2027 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burton Albion register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Plymouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plymouth have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Burton Albion.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Burton Albion winning.
It is worth noting that Plymouth have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 52% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 53% | Plymouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.64 xG and Plymouth 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.065 / defence 1.099 | Plymouth attack 1.154 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.292. Data: 58 Burton Albion games / 58 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 38%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 80% | Plymouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 38% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Burton Albion 1.64 / Plymouth 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.065 / def 1.099 | Plymouth attack 1.154 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Plymouth xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Plymouth kick off?
Burton Albion vs Plymouth is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 April 2027 at Pirelli Stadium.
Where is Burton Albion vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Plymouth part of?
Burton Albion vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 38% chance of winning, Plymouth a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Burton Albion and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Plymouth?
Record (7 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 2 | Plymouth 4W.
What form are Burton Albion and Plymouth in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
3.27
1.64
Plymouth xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.69
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.64 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 16W 20D 22L from 58 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 22L across 58 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 10W 9D 10L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 15W 4D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.60 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 16W 20D 22L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 28W 8D 22L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.34 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Plymouth runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Plymouth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
2
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Plymouth?
From 7 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Plymouth have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Plymouth 0-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 48%, Plymouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Burton Albion) and 59% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 48% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Burton Albion's matches and 59% of Plymouth's.
Do Burton Albion and Plymouth tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.