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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burton Albion and Peterborough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Burton Albion and Peterborough drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.18 xG and Peterborough 1.49 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.70 / defence 1.25 against Peterborough attack 1.03 / defence 1.31, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 30% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 44%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Peterborough 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights