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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Doncaster defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Doncaster beat Burton Albion 1-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.70 xG and Doncaster 1.06 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Doncaster outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Doncaster attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 74/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 52% | Draw 24% | Doncaster 24%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Doncaster win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 54%, Doncaster 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Doncaster's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Doncaster arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights