Burton Albion 1-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Cheltenham in League One, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cheltenham's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Cheltenham have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cheltenham are 0.60 PPG clear of Burton Albion in recent League One fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Burton Albion 0W, Cheltenham 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 52% versus Cheltenham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Cheltenham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.00 xG and Cheltenham 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.710 / defence 1.191 | Cheltenham attack 0.733 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.250. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Burton Albion games / 59 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 33% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 37%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Cheltenham 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 30% | Cheltenham 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 33% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Burton Albion 1.00 / Cheltenham 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.710 / def 1.191 | Cheltenham attack 0.733 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cheltenham xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Cheltenham kick off?
Burton Albion vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham part of?
Burton Albion vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 33% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Burton Albion and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cheltenham?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 2 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Cheltenham in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.71x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.73x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.34
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.09
1.09
Cheltenham xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.09 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 15W 14D 30L from 59 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 23L across 59 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.19 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 4W 12D 13L across 29 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.32 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 15W 14D 30L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Cheltenham away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.28 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
4
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Cheltenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Cheltenham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2024, when Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 48%, Cheltenham 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Burton Albion) and 55% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games; Cheltenham in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 59% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Burton Albion's recent games and 55% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Cheltenham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Cheltenham 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.00 xG and Cheltenham 1.09 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cheltenham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.71 / defence 1.19 against Cheltenham attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 33% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 37%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Cheltenham 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Cheltenham's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.00 PPG, Cheltenham 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.