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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Burton Albion and Cardiff share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion and Cardiff finished level at 2-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.19 xG and Cardiff 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against Cardiff attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 73/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 33% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 40%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 53%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.05 PPG, Cardiff 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights