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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Cambridge United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Cambridge United 2-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.52 xG and Cambridge United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Cambridge United attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 89/90 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 46% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 28%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 48%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.00 PPG, Cambridge United 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights