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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Blackpool 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Blackpool 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.05 xG and Blackpool 1.02 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Blackpool landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.77 / defence 1.19 against Blackpool attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 36% | Draw 30% | Blackpool 34%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Blackpool 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Blackpool's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.08 PPG, Blackpool 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights