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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bristol Rovers and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Bristol Rovers and Stockport County drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.23 xG and Stockport County 1.31 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 1.07 / defence 1.06 against Stockport County attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 74/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 35% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 38%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 49%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights