Bristol Rovers 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bristol Rovers at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bristol Rovers face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bristol Rovers and Stevenage meet at Memorial Stadium in League One (matchday 44). This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bristol Rovers's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bristol Rovers at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bristol Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Bristol Rovers against 0.80 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2024, ended Bristol Rovers 0–3 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bristol Rovers — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol Rovers 53% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol Rovers 50% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol Rovers 1.34 xG and Stevenage 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol Rovers attack 1.107 / defence 1.255 | Stevenage attack 0.696 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.152. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Bristol Rovers's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Bristol Rovers's last 89 games and Stevenage's last 88.
Result probabilities: Bristol Rovers 44% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Bristol Rovers 2.27 | Draw 3.53 | Stevenage 3.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bristol Rovers at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bristol Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bristol Rovers 90% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 44 | Venue: Memorial Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol Rovers 44% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Bristol Rovers 1.34 / Stevenage 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol Rovers attack 1.107 / def 1.255 | Stevenage attack 0.696 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Bristol Rovers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Bristol Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stevenage xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage kick off?
Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 21 April 2025 at Memorial Stadium.
What was the final score in Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage?
Bristol Rovers 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Memorial Stadium.
What competition is Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage part of?
Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bristol Rovers a 44% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bristol Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bristol Rovers and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bristol Rovers's attack at 1.11x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.70x) against Bristol Rovers's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Bristol Rovers's last 89 games and Stevenage's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol Rovers Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.53
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Bristol Rovers xG
Total xG
2.35
1.01
Stevenage xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bristol Rovers and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.01 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bristol Rovers's recent record stands at 28W 15D 45L from 88 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 33W 24D 31L across 88 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bristol Rovers against 1.40 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bristol Rovers have managed 17W 10D 17L from their last 44 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 14W 12D 18L across their last 44 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bristol Rovers are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.09 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol Rovers
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Bristol Rovers (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bristol Rovers
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Bristol Rovers and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bristol Rovers have gone 28W 15D 45L in their last 88 games (1.12 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 33W 24D 31L in their last 88 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol Rovers at home or Stevenage away?
Bristol Rovers's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol Rovers at home: 1.39 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Bristol Rovers or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bristol Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Stevenage in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Stevenage have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol Rovers won Stevenage 0-4 Bristol Rovers on 19 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bristol Rovers have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bristol Rovers
1
Draws
3
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Stevenage?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bristol Rovers have won 2, Stevenage have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bristol Rovers and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Bristol Rovers 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bristol Rovers and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bristol Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol Rovers 64%, Stevenage 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bristol Rovers) and 43% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 39%; Stevenage in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol Rovers home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bristol Rovers and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Bristol Rovers's recent matches and 39% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bristol Rovers and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bristol Rovers's recent games and 43% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol Rovers and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Bristol Rovers's recent matches and 64% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Bristol Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Bristol Rovers 0-1 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.34 xG and Stevenage 1.01 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol Rovers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 1.11 / defence 1.25 against Stevenage attack 0.70 / defence 0.96, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 44% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 28%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 50%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol Rovers's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 1.12 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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