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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bristol Rovers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol Rovers beat Peterborough 3-1 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.93 xG and Peterborough 1.24 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bristol Rovers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Peterborough attack 0.96 / defence 1.48, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 54% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 24%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 48%, Peterborough 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (73 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (73 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 1.16 PPG, Peterborough 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights