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Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Wigan 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Wigan 2-1 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.36 xG and Wigan 1.04 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Wigan attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 44% | Draw 27% | Wigan 29%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 48%, Wigan 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Wigan's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights