🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Bradford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 12, as Bradford and Lincoln drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.21 xG and Lincoln 1.21 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bradford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lincoln landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.20 / defence 1.14 against Lincoln attack 0.97 / defence 0.80, drawn from 13/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 36% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 36%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 51%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lincoln's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.76 PPG, Lincoln 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights