🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Doncaster 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Doncaster 1-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.61 xG and Doncaster 0.91 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Doncaster landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Doncaster attack 0.87 / defence 1.25, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 54% | Draw 25% | Doncaster 21%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 51%, Doncaster 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Doncaster's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.70 PPG, Doncaster 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Doncaster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights