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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Bradford 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cardiff beat Bradford 1-2 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.19 xG and Cardiff 0.94 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Cardiff attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 42% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 29%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 50%, Cardiff 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Cardiff's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.77 PPG, Cardiff 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights