Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to Valley Parade to face Bradford in League One, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's home record at Valley Parade: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Bradford's favour (1.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Bradford 2W, AFC Wimbledon 2W, 4D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 48% versus AFC Wimbledon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 42% | AFC Wimbledon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.62 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.837 / defence 0.847 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.792 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.247. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Bradford games / 59 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 54% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 17%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | AFC Wimbledon 5.88. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 30% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 54% | Draw 29% | AFC Wimbledon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Bradford 1.62 / AFC Wimbledon 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.837 / def 0.847 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.792 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Bradford (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.84
AFC Wimbledon xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Valley Parade.
Where is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 54% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bradford and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (8 meetings): Bradford 2W | Draws 4 | AFC Wimbledon 2W.
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in?
Bradford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.84x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.79x) against Bradford's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
54%
1.86
29%
3.45
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.46
0.84
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
29.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bradford and 0.84 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 27W 14D 18L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 18W 12D 29L from 59 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AFC Wimbledon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.97 PPG from 29 outings (17W 6D 6L).
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 8W 5D 16L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.02 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 27W 14D 18L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 12D 29L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Bradford's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.97 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bradford or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bradford
4
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and AFC Wimbledon?
From 8 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 41%, AFC Wimbledon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Bradford) and 62% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bradford's recent matches and 52% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Bradford's recent games and 62% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.