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Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out AFC Wimbledon 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat AFC Wimbledon 3-2 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.55 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.00 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 50% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 47%, AFC Wimbledon 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.75 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights