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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Wycombe 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Wycombe 3-2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.38 xG and Wycombe 0.89 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wycombe outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Wycombe attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 48% | Draw 28% | Wycombe 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Wycombe 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Wycombe's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.59 PPG, Wycombe 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wycombe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights