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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bolton run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Wigan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Wigan 4-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.50 xG and Wigan 0.85 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Wigan attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 52% | Draw 26% | Wigan 21%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Wigan 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Wigan's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.46 PPG, Wigan 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights