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Dominant Bolton run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stockport County.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Stockport County 4-1 at Wembley Stadium, Final, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.92 xG and Stockport County 1.62 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.34 / defence 1.17 against Stockport County attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 45% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 33%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (94 games, 47 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (94 games, 47 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.59 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights