🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Bolton 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Bolton 0-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.64 xG and Stockport County 1.28 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.42 / defence 1.21 against Stockport County attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 45% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 29%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 57%, Stockport County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Stockport County's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.72 PPG, Stockport County 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights