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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Leyton Orient 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Leyton Orient 2-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.75 xG and Leyton Orient 0.91 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.00 / defence 0.77 against Leyton Orient attack 1.09 / defence 1.28, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 57% | Draw 23% | Leyton Orient 19%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 51%, Leyton Orient 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Leyton Orient's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.52 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights