Bolton 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 23 as Bolton welcome Derby to University of Bolton Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at University of Bolton Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bolton Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bolton are significantly better at University of Bolton Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bolton) versus 1.70 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Derby trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 45% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 46% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.07 xG and Derby 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.053 / defence 0.841 | Derby attack 0.874 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.100. Data: 67 Bolton games / 21 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 41% | Draw 33% | Derby 27%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Derby 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 40% | Derby 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 41% | Draw 33% | Derby 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Bolton 1.07 / Derby 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.053 / def 0.841 | Derby attack 0.874 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Bolton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Derby xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Derby kick off?
Bolton vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Derby?
Bolton 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Bolton vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Derby part of?
Bolton vs Derby is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 41% chance of winning, Derby a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bolton and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bolton and Derby in?
Bolton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Derby (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bolton's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.05
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bolton xG
Total xG
1.88
0.81
Derby xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Bolton and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bolton and 0.81 for Derby, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 31W 15D 21L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 23W 20D 24L from 67 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.61 PPG, Derby on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.94 PPG from 34 outings (19W 9D 6L).
On the road, Derby have gone 6W 11D 17L from 34 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bolton are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.09 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Derby in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 31W 15D 21L in their last 67 games (1.61 PPG), while Derby have gone 23W 20D 24L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Derby away?
Bolton's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.94 PPG; Derby away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Bolton or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Derby in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bolton and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bolton's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Bolton have won 1, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 47%, Derby 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bolton) and 29% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derby in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bolton's recent matches and 38% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bolton's recent games and 29% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Derby tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derby in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bolton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Bolton and Derby drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.07 xG and Derby 0.81 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bolton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Derby landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Derby attack 0.87 / defence 0.81, drawn from 67/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 41% | Draw 33% | Derby 27%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 46%, Derby 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.61 PPG, Derby 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.