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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bolton and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton and Cambridge United finished level at 2-2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.08 xG and Cambridge United 0.99 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.23 / defence 1.09 against Cambridge United attack 0.79 / defence 1.36, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 62% | Draw 21% | Cambridge United 17%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 54%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cambridge United's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights