Bolton 4-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bolton at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bolton host AFC Wimbledon at University of Bolton Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bolton's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at University of Bolton Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bolton Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bolton carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bolton have won 0, AFC Wimbledon 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bolton in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 39% versus AFC Wimbledon 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 52% | AFC Wimbledon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.98 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.337 / defence 1.001 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.834 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.223. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Bolton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Bolton games / 31 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 59% | Draw 22% | AFC Wimbledon 19%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | AFC Wimbledon 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Bolton 30% | AFC Wimbledon 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 59% | Draw 22% | AFC Wimbledon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Bolton 1.98 / AFC Wimbledon 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.337 / def 1.001 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.834 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Bolton (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AFC Wimbledon xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Bolton 4 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 59% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bolton and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Bolton 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Bolton and AFC Wimbledon in?
Bolton (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bolton's attack rating (1.34) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.58
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.00
1.02
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
3%
38.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Bolton and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Bolton and 1.02 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bolton come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 5D 13L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.00 PPG from 31 outings (6W 13D 12L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Bolton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bolton's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Bolton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (3W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bolton are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 31 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 13W 5D 13L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 13D 12L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Bolton's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.93 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bolton and AFC Wimbledon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bolton go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Bolton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bolton's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bolton
1
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Bolton have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and AFC Wimbledon?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 36%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bolton) and 57% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bolton have failed to score in 29% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bolton's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bolton's matches and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Bolton and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bolton run riot with a 4-0 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat AFC Wimbledon 4-0 at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.98 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.02 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.34 / defence 1.00 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 59% | Draw 22% | AFC Wimbledon 19%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, AFC Wimbledon 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.