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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Blackpool 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Blackpool 1-2 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.20 xG and Wrexham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Wrexham attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 88/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 40% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 31%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 56%, Wrexham 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Wrexham's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.55 PPG, Wrexham 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights