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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Blackpool 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Blackpool 1-2 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.22 xG and Stockport County 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Stockport County attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 37% | Draw 28% | Stockport County 35%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Stockport County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 59%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights