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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Blackpool 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stevenage beat Blackpool 2-3 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.35 xG and Stevenage 1.02 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Stevenage outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 44% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 28%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 65%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Stevenage's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.46 PPG, Stevenage 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights