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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Blackpool and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 24, as Blackpool and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.77 xG and Shrewsbury 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Shrewsbury attack 0.99 / defence 1.48, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 53% | Draw 24% | Shrewsbury 23%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 53%, Shrewsbury 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Shrewsbury's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Blackpool arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights