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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Blackpool edge out Port Vale 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackpool beat Port Vale 3-2 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.50 xG and Port Vale 0.94 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Blackpool beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port Vale outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Port Vale attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 83/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 50% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 24%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 59%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Port Vale's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.30 PPG, Port Vale 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights