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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Blackpool.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Blackpool 0-4 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.47 xG and Plymouth 1.34 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Blackpool fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 76/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 40% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 34%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 59%, Plymouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.32 PPG, Plymouth 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights