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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Blackpool cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackpool beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 2.02 xG and Crawley Town 1.22 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Blackpool beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Crawley Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.53, drawn from 77/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 56% | Draw 22% | Crawley Town 22%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 52%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Crawley Town's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.48 PPG, Crawley Town 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights