🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Blackpool cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cardiff.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackpool beat Cardiff 3-1 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 0.99 xG and Cardiff 1.04 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Blackpool beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Cardiff attack 0.83 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 33% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 36%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Blackpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 58%, Cardiff 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.34 PPG, Cardiff 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights