🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Blackpool edge out Cambridge United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackpool beat Cambridge United 2-1 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.56 xG and Cambridge United 0.99 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Cambridge United attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 23%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 53%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Cambridge United's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Blackpool arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights