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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Blackpool.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Blackpool 0-2 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.89 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.24 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Blackpool fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 1.11 / defence 1.13 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 56/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Blackpool 53% | Draw 22% | AFC Wimbledon 25%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a AFC Wimbledon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 61%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Blackpool's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.34 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights