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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Barnsley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stockport County beat Barnsley 1-3 at Oakwell, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnsley 1.46 xG and Stockport County 1.60 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnsley attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Stockport County attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barnsley 35% | Draw 24% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnsley 66%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barnsley's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Barnsley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights