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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wigan beat AFC Wimbledon 1-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.29 xG and Wigan 1.04 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Wigan attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 28% | Wigan 30%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Wigan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 36%, Wigan 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Wigan's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights