AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 28 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Stockport County to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stockport County away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Stockport County have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against AFC Wimbledon's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
It is worth noting that Stockport County have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 42% versus Stockport County 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 48% | Stockport County 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.99 xG and Stockport County 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.771 / defence 0.770 | Stockport County attack 1.278 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.376. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 AFC Wimbledon games / 52 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 25% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 43%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Stockport County 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Stockport County 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 25% | Draw 32% | Stockport County 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.99 / Stockport County 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.771 / def 0.770 | Stockport County attack 1.278 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Stockport County xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 25% chance of winning, Stockport County a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Record (6 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 5W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.77) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
25%
4.00
32%
3.10
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.34
1.35
Stockport County xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
6%
15.53
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.35 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 18W 9D 25L from 52 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 17L across 52 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 10W 5D 11L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 11W 6D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
Stockport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 9D 25L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 25W 10D 17L in their last 52 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.35 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Mar 2026, when Stockport County won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
5
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Stockport County have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 38%, Stockport County 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AFC Wimbledon) and 58% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 54% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 58% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Stockport County tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.