AFC Wimbledon vs Stockport County – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Stockport County (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AFC Wimbledon face Stockport County.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 28 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Stockport County to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AFC Wimbledon haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stockport County haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Stockport County away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Stockport County's 1.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AFC Wimbledon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stockport County in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Stockport County have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against AFC Wimbledon's 1 victories.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.

It is worth noting that Stockport County have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

AFC Wimbledon trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Stockport County trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 46% versus Stockport County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 50% | Stockport County 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.30 xG and Stockport County 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.884 / defence 1.176 | Stockport County attack 1.082 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.240. Data: 46 AFC Wimbledon games / 46 Stockport County games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 31% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 44%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Stockport County 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 60% | Stockport County 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights