AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Notts County at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 3W 2D 5L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Notts County — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Notts County have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Notts County's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AFC Wimbledon: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Notts County, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The historical record gives AFC Wimbledon a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Notts County in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 44% versus Notts County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 50% | Notts County 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.27 xG and Notts County 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.748 / defence 0.875 | Notts County attack 0.986 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.273. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 AFC Wimbledon games / 4 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 39% | Draw 31% | Notts County 30%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Notts County 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
AFC Wimbledon dominate the H2H record, yet Notts County are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Notts County (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Notts County 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 39% | Draw 31% | Notts County 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.27 / Notts County 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.748 / def 0.875 | Notts County attack 0.986 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Notts County xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 39% chance of winning, Notts County a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Notts County?
Record (6 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 5W | Draws 0 | Notts County 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Notts County in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.75) and Notts County's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.26
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.37
1.10
Notts County xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.10 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 16W 9D 25L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Notts County, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 12L across 50 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Notts County by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 8W 5D 11L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Notts County's away record stands at 12W 5D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.62 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
Notts County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Notts County in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Notts County have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Notts County away?
Notts County's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.21 PPG; Notts County away: 1.71 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Notts County in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 5, Notts County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Notts County?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 42%, Notts County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AFC Wimbledon) and 50% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 50% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 50% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Notts County tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Notts County in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.