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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Northampton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Northampton 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.28 xG and Northampton 0.82 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Northampton landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.79 / defence 1.00 against Northampton attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 47% | Draw 29% | Northampton 24%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 38%, Northampton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Northampton's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights