AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Lincoln in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lincoln away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lincoln are 0.50 PPG clear of AFC Wimbledon in recent League One fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AFC Wimbledon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lincoln in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 1W, Lincoln 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 51% versus Lincoln 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 46% | Lincoln 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.20 xG and Lincoln 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.796 / defence 1.230 | Lincoln attack 0.893 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.238. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lincoln bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 AFC Wimbledon games / 35 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 32% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 39%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Lincoln 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lincoln as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 60% | Lincoln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 32% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.20 / Lincoln 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.796 / def 1.230 | Lincoln attack 0.893 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Lincoln xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 2 Lincoln.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 32% chance of winning, Lincoln a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Lincoln 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.89x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.47
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.56
1.36
Lincoln xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.36 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 35 games, going 5W 15D 15L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (10W 8D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.09 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 2W 10D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.19 points per game from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.14 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln in 60%.
Last 35 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 5W 15D 15L in their last 35 games (0.86 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.00 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Lincoln have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Lincoln 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for AFC Wimbledon, 69% for Lincoln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AFC Wimbledon) and 56% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 38% of games; Lincoln in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 69% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 56% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Lincoln tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat AFC Wimbledon 0-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.20 xG and Lincoln 1.36 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Lincoln attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 32% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 39%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 46%, Lincoln 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lincoln's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 0.86 PPG, Lincoln 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Lincoln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.