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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lincoln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Lincoln 2-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.19 xG and Lincoln 1.36 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lincoln landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Lincoln attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 41%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AFC Wimbledon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 30%, Lincoln 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lincoln's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.62 PPG, Lincoln 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights