AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Doncaster – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Doncaster travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Doncaster have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Doncaster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Doncaster have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Wimbledon 0.60 PPG, Doncaster 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for AFC Wimbledon, 2 for Doncaster and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Doncaster in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 36% versus Doncaster 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 37% | Doncaster 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.15 xG and Doncaster 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.629 / defence 0.947 | Doncaster attack 0.848 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.102. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Doncaster bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 AFC Wimbledon games / 24 Doncaster games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 30% | Doncaster 28%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Doncaster 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Doncaster 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 30% | Doncaster 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.15 / Doncaster 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.629 / def 0.947 | Doncaster attack 0.848 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Doncaster xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Doncaster.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 42% chance of winning, Doncaster a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster?
Record (9 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 4W | Draws 3 | Doncaster 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Doncaster (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 0.63x the league average against Doncaster's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Doncaster's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.32
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.04
0.89
Doncaster xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.89 for Doncaster, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 30W 17D 23L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Doncaster's form line: 30W 17D 23L from 70 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Doncaster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.53 PPG, Doncaster on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (18W 8D 9L).
On the road, Doncaster have gone 14W 7D 14L from 35 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Doncaster are on 1.39 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Doncaster
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 30W 17D 23L in their last 70 games (1.53 PPG), while Doncaster have gone 30W 17D 23L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Doncaster away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.77 PPG; Doncaster away: 1.40 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Doncaster been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Doncaster in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Doncaster specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AFC Wimbledon
3
Draws
3
Doncaster
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster?
From 10 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, Doncaster have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Doncaster.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Doncaster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 26%, Doncaster 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (AFC Wimbledon) and 49% (Doncaster).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 29% of games; Doncaster in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Doncaster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Doncaster?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 51% of Doncaster's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 49% of Doncaster's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Doncaster in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Doncaster defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Doncaster beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.15 xG and Doncaster 0.89 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.63 / defence 0.95 against Doncaster attack 0.85 / defence 1.35, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 30% | Doncaster 28%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Doncaster win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 37%, Doncaster 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Doncaster's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.53 PPG, Doncaster 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Doncaster win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Doncaster (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.