AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Burton Albion at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1W 2D 1L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 1.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AFC Wimbledon at 1.20 PPG versus Burton Albion's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AFC Wimbledon 70% and Burton Albion 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 70% | Burton Albion 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.48 xG and Burton Albion 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.096 / defence 1.205 | Burton Albion attack 0.502 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.231. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 AFC Wimbledon games / 10 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 55% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 19%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Burton Albion 5.26. The model has a clear lean to AFC Wimbledon (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 75% | Burton Albion 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 55% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.48 / Burton Albion 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.096 / def 1.205 | Burton Albion attack 0.502 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Burton Albion xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 55% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 1.10x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.78
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.22
0.74
Burton Albion xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
4%
23.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.74 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.20 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.90 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Wimbledon have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Burton Albion away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.25 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Burton Albion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Burton Albion have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Burton Albion 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 75%, Burton Albion 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AFC Wimbledon) and 25% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 50%; Burton Albion in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 0% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 25% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion finished level at 1-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.48 xG and Burton Albion 0.74 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 / defence 1.21 against Burton Albion attack 0.50 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 55% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 19%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 70%, Burton Albion 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.20 PPG, Burton Albion 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.