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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bradford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon beat Bradford 3-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.01 xG and Bradford 0.87 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.65 / defence 1.01 against Bradford attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 38% | Draw 32% | Bradford 30%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 38%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Bradford's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.49 PPG, Bradford 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights