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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out AFC Wimbledon 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG and Bolton 0.87 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.54 / defence 0.96 against Bolton attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 27% | Draw 36% | Bolton 37%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 36%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bolton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.52 PPG, Bolton 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights